ICE Might Be The Cleanest “Reversal” Setup

Why ICE Matters in a Noisy 2026

If 2026 stays “messy” (rates headlines, policy shifts, geopolitics), there’s a type of business that often benefits: the one that powers hedging, trading, and price discovery.

That’s Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), not a hype stock, but market infrastructure.

ICE can pull back when markets rotate away from “steady compounders.”

But the reversal case shows up when activity + fundamentals stay firm while price sentiment improves.

What Knocked It Back

ICE doesn’t always fall because its business breaks.

Sometimes it’s just:

• broad de-risking,

• valuation compression,

• or investors temporarily chasing faster stories elsewhere.

That’s why ICE can be a “clean reversal” candidate: the business can stay healthy even when the stock cools off.

Signs the Tide Is Turning

ICE just published its December, Q4, and full-year 2025 statistics, and they’re strong.

Highlights:

• Total Financials: 2025 record ADV +16% y/y; December ADV +25% y/y

• Total Interest Rates: 2025 record ADV +19% y/y; December ADV +33% y/y

• Open interest (OI) also surged: Total Financials OI +46% y/y, Total Interest Rates OI +54% y/y (with record OI days in December).

That’s exactly the kind of “under the hood” strength you want behind a reversal narrative.

ICE is a “pipes” business, not a single product bet

ICE isn’t only an exchange operator. It runs multiple engines across Exchanges, Fixed Income & Data Services, and Mortgage Technology, which helps it stay resilient when one segment is quieter.

That diversified model is why ICE often gets re-rated after pullbacks: investors remember it’s not just a trading-volume story.

When rates, policy, and geopolitics keep shifting, investors hedge more, reposition more, and trade more. Reuters has repeatedly tied ICE’s earnings strength to volatility-driven activity and growth in its fixed income/data business, exactly the setup that can keep supporting ICE into 2026.

ICE doesn’t need a perfect bull market. It just needs markets to keep moving.

Technical View

Early signs of the reversal from the downtrend had shown up as prices rebounded from the 145.00 support.

Where the buyers look to defend the 160 support area, this temporary support could form a new base as part of the reversal.

If prices are able to break firmly and stay above the 170 level, there could be more confirmations of a reversal, where a 1GT Bullish signal might appear as well.

Setting up alerts for the reversal confirmations

The risks to respect

If volatility collapses and rates get “too stable,” the upside torque can fade. Mortgage activity could also disappoint if borrowing costs don’t cooperate, which would blunt the second-cycle support.

So the thesis isn’t “ICE wins no matter what.” It’s “ICE is positioned well if 2026 remains active and uncertain.”

Bottom line

ICE looks like a clean pullback-to-reversal candidate because participation and open interest were already accelerating into end-2025, and the company has multiple earnings engines beyond trading volumes alone.

Hope you have found the above stocks useful 😃 

If you have yet to be a part of Joey’s VIP clients in Phillip Securities receiving his Exclusive WhatsApp Broadcast daily, you can check it out here!

Joey and team post Top SG Stock Ideas, Market Updates, Research Reports and training videos on a daily basis at NO additional cost.

Look forward to see you on the inside!

- Joey, Bervyn & Zee

Sources:
1.Intercontinental Exchange Reports December, Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Statistics. Available at: https://ir.theice.com/press/news-details/2026/Intercontinental-Exchange-Reports-December-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Statistics
2. Intercontinental Exchange Reports Strong Third Quarter 2025. Available at: https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202510300730BIZWIRE_USPRX____20251030_BW065088-1

Note that by subscribing to receive any of Joey's training by email, you agree to allow us to send you the training by email. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. If the investment is denominated in a foreign currency, factors including but not limited to changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of an investment. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these web pages, are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance of any investment products. By Accessing this Website and ANY of its pages, you are agreeing to the terms set out ON ALL the following pages as seen below. Copyright © | Joey Choy | All Rights Reserved | Disclaimer | Privacy & Security Policy | Terms and Condition