Executive Summary

After an impressive 9-day winning streak, the S&P 500 finally pulled back—triggered by renewed trade tensions, President Trump’s unexpected tariffs on foreign media, and Warren Buffett’s surprise announcement to step down as CEO. Yet despite the noise, something interesting is happening beneath the surface. The index is still holding firmly above a key support zone at 5,400–5,500, and my 1GT (Pro) Indicator has just flashed a bullish signal, hinting that this may not be the end—but the start of another leg higher.

With 5,800 and even 6,150 as possible upside targets, traders are asking: Was this just a healthy pause before the next big push? Dive into my latest analysis to see why this market may still have fuel left in the tank.

S&P 500 Index (SPX) is one of the most widely followed benchmarks for the U.S. stock market, tracking the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies across various sectors, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer goods.

It serves as a broad barometer of U.S. equity market health and investor sentiment.

Looking at the chart, the index recently rebounded strongly from the 5,400–5,500 support zone, where we also saw a bullish signal triggered from my 1GT (Pro) Indicator.

This green signal adds early confirmation that buyers may be stepping back in after the sharp correction in April due to Trump introducing sweeping tariffs.

The short-term momentum has clearly shifted with prices reclaiming the 5,500 level and pushing past the 20-day moving average (green line), which is beginning to tilt upwards.

This recent 1GT bullish signal is still playing out and offers a potential pivot for a larger move back toward the prior resistance zone.

The green arrow drawn aligns well with this scenario, illustrating the potential for a continued rebound toward the 5,800 level first, followed by the all-time high zone near 6,150, where we saw earlier red 1GT bearish signals appearing near market peaks.

The longer-term trend remains sideways for now, with the 200-day moving average (blue line) flattening.

However, the 100-day moving average (red line) is currently sloping down slightly, so further follow-through will be needed to flip the medium-term trend back up decisively.

As long as the index holds above the key 5,500 support, short-term sentiment remains positive.

Traders can consider riding this potential rebound but should watch closely for any signs of exhaustion near the resistance zones, especially if new red 1GT signals start appearing again.

Overall, the setup looks constructive, and the recent bullish 1GT signal provides a structured framework for both short-term positioning and risk management.

So, how does one take a position in the S&P 500 Index whereby you are able to reap more potential return to ride the uptrend further?

Investors worried about the persisting uncertainties in the market and wish only to reduce their time in the market by participating only in S&P’s short-term technical positioning may wish to do so via a warrant. The trending S&P500 call warrant by Macquarie is S&P 5600MBeCW250919 (PVZW), which expires on 19 September 2025 and is currently priced at SGD 0.155 with S&P500 futures trading at 5,650 as of 340PM on 6 May 2025.

Investors who are bullish about S&P500 technically, due to its support above the 5,500 level, can consider buying this warrant at SGD 0.155. To find out how the warrant would perform should this bullish view be correct, one can use the Warrant Calculator tool as reference (https://warrants.com.sg/tools/warrantcalculator/PVZW) .

Simply move the “Underlying price target” under the Target exit variables column to the profit-taking level of 5,800 level, followed by a shift in the slider under “Date”.

For example, should the S&P500 futures increase 2.8% in two days to the profit-taking level of 5,800, this call warrant would increase by 18.1% to the theoretical price of SGD 0.183, 6.5 times more than the S&P’s percentage gain. (see Figure 1 below)

However, if the S&P500 futures takes more than 1 month to hit the target level of 5,800, the holding cost of this warrant will now erode the magnifying effect of the warrant to make gains similar to that of the futures’ 2.8% gain. This means, the maximum holding period of a +2.8% view on the S&P500 is 1.5 months. (See Figure 2 below)

To hold onto the warrant for a longer period, the index would need to move more heavily in the investor’s favor. For example, if the futures were to move 9% higher to 6,150 instead, the call warrant would still gain 5.7 times more than the S&P500 even with 1.5 months holding period.

Interested warrant investors should use the Warrant Calculator tool to simulate the warrant price performance to see how the warrant prices change with time and to estimate their maximum holding period in order to trade any warrant in a strategic way.

The sharing on how one can take a position using warrants has been contributed by Macquarie warrants Singapore who is the issuer of these warrants listed on SGX.

About the Author - Joey Choy

Joey is Singapore’s renowned mentor on how to make an income by trading the stock market, an author and one of the most-watched, quoted and followed stock trading trainers in Singapore. Over the years, he has conducted numerous full house seminars, enriching thousands to trade more profitably. 

Joey’s come back story from a S$740k debt has been featured in the Business Times and inspired thousands in Singapore. In less than 3 years, he is highly regarded as one of the Top Tier Remisiers (Stock Brokers) and Traders, bagging numerous yearly awards like Top Trading Representative and Top CFD Achiever every year from 2014 to 2023 in Phillip Securities.

More about Joey here

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Look forward to see you on the inside!

- Joey

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